Brian's View on the Netherlands' Gold Move

Jimmy Wong

Between March and August, the Dutch central bank moved 86 tonnes of gold out of New York and Ottawa. It sold 59 tonnes in New York and bought the same amount back in London. It shipped the remaining 27 tonnes to its own vault in the Netherlands. New York's share of Dutch gold fell from 31.3% to 18.5%, Ottawa's from 19.7% to the same level, and London now holds the largest share, just over 32%. The stockpile is worth roughly €72 billion (US$84 billion). London made sense as the destination: it's the world's main gold trading hub, so gold there can be moved or sold much faster than gold in a purely domestic vault.

It's tempting to read this as a dig at the US. One Dutch commentator even called keeping gold on US soil "an unacceptable liability." But that's not the full picture: Germany did the same thing in 2013, finishing the move by 2017, under a different US administration. This fits a pattern years in the making, not a reaction to this year's headlines.

That pattern shows up clearly in the numbers. Gold is now the largest asset in the European Central Bank's reserves, at 27%, ahead of US Treasuries (22%) and the euro (15%). Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, after three years of roughly 1,000 tonnes annually. The Dutch move is one data point in that larger shift, as gold takes share from both the dollar and the euro.

This news doesn't move gold's price on its own — but it confirms a trend. A rocky few years for the world economy, central banks fighting inflation, and conflicts from Ukraine to Gaza to Iran have made gold a more important safe-haven asset, and this fits that pattern.

From here, gold's price rests on two forces: central bank buying, which gives it steady long-term support, and faster-moving factors like interest rates, the US dollar, and investor mood. It backs up gold's safe-haven role, but it's not itself a fresh reason to trade.

Gold traded between US$4,380 and US$4,520 this week, easing back on Friday as weak US jobs data weighed on the dollar. ADP's August private payrolls rose just 38,000 — the weakest since January, short of the 47,000 forecast. Friday's non-farm payrolls report was expected to show around 55,000 new jobs, 4.1% unemployment and 0.3% wage growth.

But the biggest mover this week wasn't a data release — it was a single comment. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd favour leaving rates unchanged if inflation keeps easing — a softer line than Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech last week. September rate-hike odds dropped from about 63% to 50% in a day, and the US dollar and Treasury yields fell, supporting gold.

The US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend after a truce lapsed, and Brent crude jumped back above US$90 a barrel. Gold firmed on rate-cut hopes, but gold producers didn't get the same lift — higher oil raises their costs and squeezes margins. Brian explores this gap between gold stocks and the metal itself in this week's Daily Reckoning piece, below.

Gold markets are closed over the 5–6 September weekend, so Friday's payrolls reaction carries into Monday's open. Next week brings August producer and consumer price data, plus the University of Michigan's September sentiment and inflation-expectations reading — all likely to move rate-hike odds further.

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